Fantasy related but good info....
Dose: Dwight Howard for MVP?
The NBA's MVP award has seen plenty of controversy over the past 10 years or so. After all, Steve Nash has two MVP awards while Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O'Neal each hold one, and while we all love Nash, nobody in their right mind would claim that Nash belongs in the same conversation as either of the former Laker teammates by any stretch of the imagination. After all, Bryant will likely be the only player for the next 20 years to sniff the fabled Michael Jordan comparison, while outside of Tim Duncan's underappreciated greatness -- Shaq is the closest thing we've seen to a player of Wilt Chamberlain's stature until a certain goofy center landed in Orlando.
And as the current landscape of the NBA gives residence to the dying supernovas of Bryant, Duncan, Shaq, and a who's who of one-time NBA champions, only two players have the pure physical talent to be transformational like Bryant, Duncan, and Shaq were – and like Jordan, Hakeem Olajuwon, and the heroes of the 80s were before them.
Those two players are Dwight Howard and LeBron James. If they want to go right, they can go right. If they want to go over you, they can go over you. And if they choose correctly at most forks in the road, they'll get their way.
Ironically enough, both are taking the same type of lumps. They can't lead, they can't win the big game, and they don't have the mental toughness to hold the metaphoric jock straps of those that built the game before them. Both are deservedly in the MVP chase, and both are losing ground to the Golden Boys of the NBA, Derrick Rose and Kevin Durant.
So why are they losing ground? Isn't the most valuable player the player that has the most value? Or is it something else?
If you had to hold a draft today for a winner take-all playoff, who would you select?
Many of you would select Kobe Bryant for the fact that he hasn't handed the crown off just yet. Some of you would select LeBron for his game-changing athleticism, that is, unless you opted for Dwyane Wade because he's the better player right now. Many of you would select Kevin Durant simply because you think he's better than all of them at this stage of his career. And there would even be some of you that take Tim Duncan, because at the most important position on the floor, center, his wily ways still command tremendous value on the basketball court. Besides, who's arguing with four championships?
And let's say that your livelihood was on the line. How many of you would care about Le Decision, or that Wade and James cancel each other out, or that Rose's humility and conference leading record make him the safe choice, or that Howard should be dominating with his God-given gifts, that Durant says all the right things, that a player's numbers are either up or down, or that they have teammates who are better or worse than the next guy?
You would take the guy that can win you four games in four straight series. Period.
Now James has shown his warts on a nationally televised loop that, in my mind, keep him from being the most valuable. If you consistently come up short when it matters most, then you're not the ambassador of Kwan. And with Miami stumbling through their early days as a living, breathing basketball organism, I could not in good faith give an award to Wade, who I believe has played better than James this season. Kobe has played very well this season, and there's no reason why he shouldn't be in the discussion, along with Durant and Rose.
And then there's Howard.
Howard, like James, is basketball checkmate. Like Kareem Abdul-Jabbar before him, Howard has the ability to beat you every time. Should he learn to make the baby hooks and convert on the drop steps, you cannot stop him. Should he learn how to make foul shots, you can't hack away at him. On both ends of the floor, he has been a force, and to me – just by being who he is, he cannot be excluded from the final round of the MVP decision-making process. It is impossible to ignore that for every game, he is going to get 14 possession-saving rebounds, score 23 points to impact the final tally, block 2.4 shots and alter many more while taking away a team's best post player, and space the floor so the team can make nearly 10 threes per game.
And while it's neither polished nor perfect, it is what it is, and just like Bill Clinton waxes poetic on what the definition of the word 'is' is – MVP voters parse with the same voracity.
But nobody questions the impact Howard has on the game. Howard is the reason guys like Hasheem Thabeet get drafted No. 2 overall, as a dominant figure in the post is The Fifth Element.
Derrick Rose can control the game on offense, but the jury is still out on his defense. Kobe Bryant is the most lethal closer of a generation, and Kevin Durant can score in so many different ways that Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson stopped crashing weddings to take notes in Oklahoma City – but where does their influence stop on the other side of the court? Even with Howard's warts fully on display – the bad free throw shooting, the whining, the lax attitude of a silver medalist, and the lack of a go-to move – he still impacts the NBA more than any other player in the league.
And while I'm not holding my breath in wait for the NBA to grant me an MVP vote, if I had the choice, I'd be sure to throw away any 'Most Valuable Persona' or 'Must Validate the Press' accoutrements. I wouldn't be voting with a need to pick a guy from a winning team, or a need to pick a guy whose surrounding cast would flounder in his absence. I wouldn't pick a guy because he's not a jerk, or because he doesn't do stupid things, or because I don't have an axe to grind with him. If I was voting while Michael Jordan played, I'd have voted for Michael Jordan for 10 straight years.
And if Dwight Howard played like he did last night, every night, scoring 33 points on 11-of-15 shooting with 11 rebounds, one steal, and three blocks while hitting 11-of-13 freebies – I'd vote for him every year, too.
Because I'd draft him No. 1 overall to start the playoffs.
Pop's Prerogative
When Tim Duncan (ankle) went down on Monday night, the immediate question was whether or not DeJuan Blair could pick up where he left off weeks ago, and the mystery wasn't immediately cleared up last night. I've found that dealing with this question is easier working backwards, assessing the pieces surrounding Blair to find the conclusion, rather than asking whether or not Blair is going to start or not. The fact is that Pop has planned to use Antonio McDyess as a starter in the playoffs, and unless he's going to change that – he has to determine if bringing Blair into the starting lineup is going to affect continuity within the second unit.
Regardless of the answer to that question, Tiago Splitter is not answering any questions for Pop when he's getting winded after 17 minutes of mostly unproductive action. Splitter scored four points with seven boards last night, and while Blair wasn't much better with eight points, six boards, and two blocks, he clearly looked better than Splitter. The player that looked the best was Antonio McDyess, who may end up being the beneficiary of Duncan's injury, as he scored 13 points with 12 boards and a block. In my mind, the question of Blair vs. Dice is too close to call definitively, but I'll be rostering Blair for the chance he shows his big double-double numbers once more, and ready to move to Dice if this trend keeps up. Overall, I don't think Pop can afford to play Splitter big minutes, he doesn't want Dice playing much more than he is, and Matt Bonner is both slumping and hard to get behind too much. The result is that Blair should still be owned in most standard leagues, though he isn't a must-own player.
Carmelo Nuggets
The Nuggets are 11-4 since the Melo trade with 11 games coming against teams that are over .500, and they dispatched the Spurs for the first time this season, albeit without Duncan around. Al Harrington had his second straight appearance in the fantasy realm, scoring 27 points with five treys on 8-of-12 shooting in 28 minutes, and to me this wreaks of George Karl getting him involved to keep him ready for the playoffs. Harrington is making good on the minutes, but he needs to do this at least one more time before he should be considered in fantasy leagues. Meanwhile, Al's hot hand somewhat limited J.R. Smith, who was also hot with 6-of-9 makes (including two threes) for 18 points in just 20 minutes. With Arron Afflalo (hamstring) expecting to come back on Wednesday, this run by Harrington complicates the already small window Swish had to make his impression – but I still like him to be productive as long as Afflalo is out.
The other, more interesting piece that came out of last night's game was the return of Raymond Felton, who scored 18 points with eight assists, but also re-injured his ankle twice in the third and fourth quarters. He stayed in the game, and should be owned going forward unless bad news emerges, but Ty Lawson's owners may end up with some more unbridled run if that ankle keeps acting up.
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We're off to see the Wizards
Blake Griffin busted out of his slump in a huge way last night against the Wizards, triple-doubling for the first time in his career with 33 points on 14-of-19 shooting with 17 rebounds, 10 assists, a steal, and a block in a career-high 53.5 minutes as the Clips dispatched the Wiz in double-overtime. If you had anybody playing in this game outside of Trevor Booker, you're probably doing well this week. Eric Gordon scored 32 points with a full stat line and a game-tying three with 1.9 seconds left in regulation, Chris Kaman played sans-DeAndre Jordan and scored 28 points, 12 rebounds, one steal, and four blocks, John Wall scored a career-high 32 points with five boards, 10 assists, a steal, and a block, Jordan Crawford went off for 25 points, seven boards, a career-high 10 assists, four steals, and two threes, and even Yi Jianlian got into the act with a season-high 18 points on 9-of-14 shooting and seven boards.
From the Clippers fantasy standpoint, the only real question for owners is when Jordan will be healthy enough to play, as the pneumonia has kept him from eating and it may take a bit for him to get back on the court. And when he gets back, it's possible that Kaman's solid play will be rewarded with the starting job and/or more minutes. Whatever the case may be, Kaman is the player to own and if you're scrapping in the playoffs you need to take a long, hard look to determine if you can hold Jordan, even if patience is the preferred approach.
In Washington, however, everything revolves around the futures of Nick Young and Andray Blatche. Young warmed up last night but didn't play, which would be a good sign if there weren't so many overtures that both he and Blatche would be getting shut down. As of the time of this writing, no report from a reputable source has come across the wire, but I did see a gambling site that is right more often than it is wrong say that Young would be probable for Friday and that Blatche was expected to miss three games. This is not hard information, and since they refuse to source their information (but say their 'sources' are good), I'm not going to say who they are, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar report emerge later in the day. Whatever the case is, I'm holding Jordan Crawford until he gives me a reason not to, as I'm not convinced that Young will render him useless. As for Booker, who faced another physical match in Blake Griffin and scored just eight points with four rebounds, I'm holding him in most cases until we know Blatche is back but if a hot free agent comes along I'll probably make the move.
Aaron's Brook
I've written a few times about Aaron Brooks lately and the chance that Steve Nash would be shutdown early if/when the Suns fall out of playoff contention, and Brooks proceeded to play like a head-case and throw a basketball at a ref. Fortunately for Brooks, he turned it around with a good game in Tuesday's triple-overtime game in L.A., and then unsurprisingly picked up the slack for Nash, whose advanced age prohibits him from back-to-backs like that. He scored a season-high 25 points on 9-of-16 shooting (including four treys) with four rebounds, eight assists, and three steals in 34 minutes. Nash also played 22 minutes with 16 points and eight assists, and also spent time on the court with Brooks, too, and did not appear to aggravate any injury or increase his chances of being shutdown in any way. The only thing increasing his chances of being shutdown is the Suns' inability to make up ground in the standings, as they are still three games out of eighth place despite their win, as Memphis also won and holds the tiebreaker over Phoenix. Stashing Brooks isn't going to pay immediate dividends, but in championship week you could be holding a goldmine, so I can think of worse things to do with that last roster spot.
All aboard the Chuckwagon
It has been a banner season for the Chuckster, whose defense and passing have made him a must-start player in fantasy leagues, when the thought of paying attention to him two months ago drew laughs in some quarters. Not here, as we've been big fans of Hayes for a while now, and he went to town on the Warriors last night with his first career-triple double, scoring 13 points with 14 rebounds, 11 assists, and two steals. He won't have another game like this all year, and it comes against the Warriors, but it is the culmination of a season that has defied expectations. Don't sleep on him going forward.
The other news coming out of last night's blowout win was Luis Scola's 20 points with 10 boards and a rare block in 32 minutes. His knee still isn't 100 percent, and he is certainly a shutdown risk if the Rockets fall further behind than the two games they are trailing the Grizzlies for the last playoff spot, but owners have to be thrilled with last night's outing. They also may want to thrill themselves over to Patrick Patterson's corner, as the athletic PF would likely benefit from any Scola downtime, and has been relatively productive with three double-doubles in a row entering last night. He slowed down a bit with just eight points, nine boards, and two blocks, but looks like a good piece of insurance, and may have some standalone value, too.
Courtney Lee also posted 25 points with five threes and two steals in a start for injured Chase Budinger, who looks like he'll be back soon. If you own Lee, or are desperate enough to pick him up for the potential of another spot-start, you should hold him until Budinger proves he can return.
On the Golden State side, Dorell Wright busted out of his slump with a career-high 34 points with five rebounds, six assists, three steals, and one block, reminding everybody that he's not to be messed with. Keep him in your lineup going forward. Monta Ellis continued to look run down with 15 points, five boards, and five assists, while Stephen Curry returned to reasonable playing time levels with 16 points, six boards, six assists, two threes, and a steal in 30 minutes. You can't bench either of them, so cross your fingers and hope that both Keith Smart and nature bring favor to you.
Kings for a Day
The Kings turned back the Bucks in Milwaukee last night, and while we're not calling the Bucks out of the playoff race when the Pacers are the yardstick, it's a severe blow to lose this game and they fall behind by three games with the loss. Andrew Bogut's owners can only hope that the Bucks continue to win, as he is a risk to get injured whether they're in the playoff chase or not, but falling out of contention will be particularly bad for him. As for the Kings, Marcus Thornton scored 27 points with a full stat line, and Beno Udrih scored 25 points with a full stat line as well. The Rub? Tyreke Evans is expected to play on Friday night, and his minutes will be dictated by how he feels. 15 minutes sounds like a reasonable expectation, and overall we're not panicking. It sounds like all three players will get significant minutes, assuming Evans can stay healthy, and all three will hold enough value to be owned going forward. At least that's the hope.
Carlito's Way
The big story out of Milwaukee, however, is the tear that Carlos Delfino is on, as he set another career-high with 30 points and five threes, and is averaging 28.7 points per game over his last three contests. I'm not going to sit here and tell you that Scott Skiles is going to continue playing his starters heavy minutes, and there are four guys with varying potential that could theoretically return and clog up the arteries again (Corey Maggette, Drew Gooden, Ersan Ilyasova, Michael Redd), but after Delfino played all but one minute last night I'm hesitant to go against him. And after a season of (correctly) pointing out the crowded rotation, and the last month which has seen rocky mountain highs and rock-bottom lows, I'm cautiously optimistic he can provide at least low-end value going forward. And if he can carry your fantasy team like he's doing right now, then all the better.
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Today in Kuester
In today's Today in Kuester, I highlight the shouting match that Charlie Villanueva had with Q after being pulled in the fourth quarter. While it's yet another indictment of the situation in Detroit, I'm going to side with Q on this one. Charlie V was missing his defensive assignments, and all of the Detroit writers pointed to the fact that Kuester needed to pull his second unit faster than he did to start the fourth, which ended up costing him the game against the Heat. Fantasywise, Rodney Stuckey had just nine points and six assists, and will continue to be inconsistent off the bench, but there were no real aha moments to be had. Continue to deploy your Pistons with caution, and stay tuned for the next Today in Kuester.
Pacesetters
The Pacers turned away the Bobcats in Charlotte, and for all intents and purposes eliminated them from the playoff hunt. Stephen Jackson's hamstring is hanging by a thread, and while he sounds like a guy that's going to try to gut it out, the writing is on the wall. Gerald Henderson was charged with guarding Danny Granger as a result, which may have limited his offensive game to the 12 points he had, but he is worth an add to see if he can regain the numbers that had him producing as high as a second round value in 8-cat leagues for a stretch. He isn't going to be that good, but low-end value is certainly within his reach.
As for the Pacers, Granger went to town with 33 points on 11-of-19 shooting, and proved once again that when he plays efficiently, the Pacers win. Darren Collison left briefly with a bruised knee and returned, posting just seven points with four assists, and the hope here is that the knee injury isn't serious and that the Granger explosion is what held him down. Collison has been playing very well lately so he should get the benefit of the doubt barring bad news. The other piece of interesting news was that Frank Vogel said that he would be splitting time between starters Paul George and Tyler Hansbrough and bench players Brandon Rush and Josh McRoberts, going with a "hot-hand" approach. The good news is that Psycho T has had the hot hand recently, and did so last night with 24 points and five boards, but it adds an element of risk that owners are likely going to learn about the hard way if things go south.
Bemusement: The Boris Diaw Story
Boris Diaw isn't going to lose his job over it, but after not shooting a single shot last night he did everything he could to do so. The look on Paul Silas' face after the game when discussing Diaw was reportedly a mix of shock, bemusement, and exasperation, as Diaw continues to be the headcase with the versatile game owners crave. Backup Tyrus Thomas went down with a rib injury, and along with his knee injury, is a shutdown risk to go with being an unproductive risk. So if you own Diaw, or find him on the waiver wire, consider him to be a flier only for the chance his mood swings from disinterested to motivated by this latest embarrassment.
Doin' the Humph
It's low-hanging fruit to point out the impact that a fine woman can have on a man, but damn, the fruit doesn't fall far from the tree, here. Kris Humphries grabbed a career-high 23 rebounds to go with 18 points, two steals, and two boards in last night's overtime win against the Cavs. He started by flashing his talent in Dallas last season, and is now a must-start player until further notice. Jordan Farmar had 10 points and 10 assists and was the last PG standing in Jersey, with Sundiata Gaines lasting six minutes due to a hip injury, PG Ben Uzoh stuck at an airport after being called up from the D-League, and Deron Williams' shutdown tour set to land in Orlando for Friday's game. The plan is simple here. Hold and start Farmar while Williams is out, and unless you absolutely have to drop him, hang onto Williams until we get an up-or-down decision, either way.
The Cavs started Ryan Hollins to combat 7-footer Brook Lopez, knocking Samardo Samuels from his unexciting perch, as Samuels scored eight points with eight rebounds and a block in 22 minutes off the bench. Barring something unforeseen, however, it's likely that Samardo returns to his normal workload with serviceable, but uninspiring results, when the Cavs aren't playing somebody with Lopez's size. Elsewhere, the story is still the same in Cleveland. Baron Davis is expected to return Friday, and both he and Ramon Sessions should be held until the situation sorts itself out. J.J. Hickson went for 17 and 17, and Daniel Gibson got 33 minutes but scored just eight points with them, and without a scoring explosion from him I won't be paying attention much longer. One other note, Semih Erden could play Friday, which could knock the value out of Samuels, but if you're relying on Samuels you'll want to make sure Erden can survive on the court, first.
Caw, said the Hawk
The Hawks lost yet another game and put themselves into a dogfight for the No. 5 seed with Philly, who beat them 105-100. Jeff Teague followed his 20-point game up with a DNP-CD, while Kirk Hinrich scored 16 points with eight assists, before remembering that he's not allowed to shoot and clamming up for the entire fourth quarter. Al Horford posted mediocre numbers with eight points and nine assists, but lasted 37 minutes on his bad hammy. Josh Smith got hot with 33 points and 12 rebounds, while Joe Johnson had another mediocre outing with just 13 points. At least he got upset after the game, which could be the first step toward normalcy in Atlanta. Until they get things figured out, they'll be tough to gauge on a night to night basis, with fringe guys like Hinrich being hard to activate for fear of a donut.
Heads I win, tails you lose
Andre Iguodala (knee) was erroneously reported to be out of last night's game by their PR staff, but owners should be ready for more shenanigans, as he said that it would be a "coin flip" going forward as to whether or not he plays on a given night. Now all of the other quotes have not sounded that dire, but he'll be a risk going forward with no clear beneficiary if he does go out, aside from the corresponding bump Jrue Holiday and Elton Brand will get. As for Friday's game, Iguodala said, "we'll see." Owners have to just cross their fingers and hope that the Sixers stay close to the other teams they're jockeying with for playoff positioning. Jodie Meeks hit another five threes last night, and is now 36-of-76 (47.3%) from deep over his last 12 games.
Thursday Night Lights
The Wolves head to Dallas without Kevin Love, and Anthony Randolph will be the talk of the town, as he is custom-built to defend a guy like Dirk Nowitzki. That doesn't mean he won't fall all over himself and put up a ridiculous line in the process, or get pulled after 15 minutes of action after Kurt Rambis sees something he doesn't like. The fact is that he gets a two-game audition to make his case to both Rambis and owners. Call me a sucker, but I'm finding space to see if the lottery ticket gets cashed, but I'm not doing it at the expense of a consistent performer. Shawn Marion (wrist) is also expected back for the Mavs.
The only other game is the Hornets and Jazz, and while the Hornets are relatively healthy, we're still waiting to find out the status of Andrei Kirilenko (knee, back), Devin Harris (hamstring), and Derrick Favors (ankle). Unfortunately, anybody not named Al Jefferson (dislocated pinkie) and Paul Millsap (knee, body) is struggling, though I'm still firmly behind C.J. Miles despite his recent struggles. Unless I'm trying to protect my FG%, I'm still starting him in most circumstances, simply because somebody has to shoot the ball in Utah, and it's going to be him.
